Betting the Big 12: Week 10
By: Austin Keeney
On the eve of Texas’ last ever game they’ll play in a place that gets cold in the winter, let me just say, screw ‘em. Texas is the most entitled, least self-aware fanbase on the planet. They’ll never be back. They made that abundantly clear when they took the bag from the SEC to get beat up on by Alabama every year.
Maybe Nick Saban’s next offensive coordinator will turn the program around? Maybe if they add more celebrity fans, or spend more money on weird stadium upgrades? At least you’ll be ranked somewhere around 15th in every preseason poll from now to eternity? Nah. It’s not happening.
We folks in Ames will gleefully watch on. Thankfully, we’re past the point where the Big 12 looked like it would dissolve. In fact, we may end up on the better end of the deal. I’m ready for us to take our perch on the podium of conferences, while those rich guys in Austin collect slightly more money than they already had or will ever need. Goodbye Texas. I’d say I hope to meet you again someday in a bowl game, but it doesn’t seem like too many of those will be in your future.
I stink at picking these Big 12 games right now. There, I said it. No other way around it. But, as they (well, me) say, you don’t officially lose until you walk away. So with that said, this is the week I come back. No doubt about it. Iowa State’s opponent will never be back, but I will. Let’s get some winners!
THE GAMES
Kansas State (5-3) at Kansas (1-7)
Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FS1 | The Line: Kansas State -24
So Kansas was a terrible pick last week. How about we jump on board again? I hate starting the weekend with the Jayhawks. Call it a hunch, but K-State isn’t anything special, so this one stays surprisingly close and K-State wins it by 10.
Pick: Kansas +24
#11 Oklahoma State (7-1) at West Virginia (4-4)
Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Oklahoma State -3.5
Is West Virginia really going to put 3 complete games in a row? I say no. The Cowboys offense isn’t anything special, but they’ll move the ball enough. I see this as a great Okie State defensive effort in a 7 point win on the road.
Pick: Oklahoma State -3.5
#12 Baylor (7-1) at TCU (3-5)
Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FOX | The Line: TCU +7
Time for the interim coach bounce. It’s not the same as a firing without Gary Patterson, but it might as well have been. TCU is a team in need of a complete reset, and I think this will be their best effort of the season. It may not be enough to beat Baylor, but it’ll be close in Fort Worth.
Pick: TCU +7
Texas (4-4) at Iowa State (5-3)
Kickoff: 6:30pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: Iowa State -6.5
Angry Jack Trice? Check. Angry Iowa State team off a tough loss? Check. Completely overrated Texa$ team that is about to fall below .500 but assumes they can compete in the SEC? Check, check, check. Texas is not back. They will never be back. Clones by a million.
Pick: Iowa State -6.5
BEST BET AROUND THE COUNTRY
Liberty at Ole Miss -9.5
I’m assuming Matt Corral plays this game. Guaranteed that Lane Kiffin would love nothing more than to stick it to Hugh Freeze in the most awkward homecoming of the weekend. Liberty hasn’t played an opponent anywhere near this caliber yet. The Rebels are winning this easily.
NFL PICK OF THE WEEKEND
Bears +6 at Steelers
Simple logic here. The Steelers are not great. Big Ben can’t move anymore. They shouldn’t be favored by 6 points against anyone. I’m counting on them to fall back to Earth a little bit. Justin Fields is getting better, and if he’s finally using his legs, he’ll make enough plays to keep this close.
PROP OF THE WEEK FOR OKLAHOMA FANS
Odds to make the CFP?
Alabama -500
Alabama again -200
Georgia & Alabama’s backups -150
Oklahoma +120
Cincinnati +10000000000
SEASON RECORD: 30-35-1 (-8.5 units)
Let’s Go Pod-y: Texas
We listen to opponent pods so you don’t have to!
By: clonesjer
Welcome to Let’s Go Pod-y, where I listen to opponent’s podcasts so you don’t have to!
Podcast: Horns Up Podcast
Length: 48 mins – but there’s 2 mins of silence at the end for no reason, the pod effectively is over by the 40 min mark.
You are going to be SHOCKED to learn that Texas podcasters are self-absorbed and spend most of the podcast talking about the Longhorns instead of previewing Iowa State, it’s almost an afterthought. They spread the arrogance around as they take shots at most of the conference foes except Oklahoma. You’ll especially appreciate the Super Bowl quote, Enjoy:
On Texas Struggles in the 4th Quarter
“A better example is the catcher who can’t throw it back to the pitcher, dude you’ve done it a thousand times before, but it’s a mental block … it’s all mental”
“This team is more coach-led, but the better teams are player-led … everyone’s looking for someone to lead and no one is taking it on”
“Who’s gonna be the guy that we say ‘he wants the ball’, ‘he’s gonna make the play’ we don’t know!”
“Have you guys seen that meme where the guy is putting on this clown makeup? Like ‘time to get ready for work’, I feel like that is us [Texas] at halftime”*
*Editor’s note: I was twitching thinking this was an ISU “clown” insult in the making, but they chose the path of self-own.
On the Baylor Loss
“Baylor’s stadium barely had 32,000 fans and 12,000 of them were Longhorn fans, it wasn’t loud. No reason to jump”
“It hit both of his hands! That is his job! He had the ball, he had the ball!”
“I went golfing the next day [after the Baylor loss] … I’m on the tee box and some random goes passing by, grown man, sees me and throws the ‘horns down’ – I don’t get that in Dallas when we play, you know, Oklahoma”
On the Super Bowl
“Even with the new [Texas] head coach, and things to work out, Baylor still doesn’t expect to beat us, it is their Super Bowl … hey, Gary Patterson, [formerly TCU] he finally gonna beat Texas – he gone!, every school around this state [Texas], it’s their Super Bowl.”
“That’s us every single week, Super Bowl to all these smaller schools”
On the Remaining Schedule
“This is gonna be a dogfight game”
“After Iowa State you have: Kansas, Kansas State, and West Virginia? Those should be locks, those should be wins … should be [nervous laughter]”
On Bijan
“Bijan had his worst game [vs Baylor]”
“To be a Heisman winner, to be taken seriously, you can’t miss a game. Bijan is so much more talented than that Michigan State kid [Kenneth Walker III], I watch him run and I’m not even super impressed”
On Iowa State Defense
“If I’m them [Iowa State] I’m doubling Worthy and I’m loading the box, who is gonna be that guy? … who do we have that can make them pay? I don’t know”
On Iowa State in General
“Iowa State is going to come ready to play … they should have beat West Virginia, looking back they probably should have beat Iowa, they are who we thought they were … but this is the ‘battle of the disappointing seasons’ … get the win, get a chance to walk out with our heads held high”
On Excuses for Sark
“Look the guy hasn’t coached, or been a head coach anyway, for quite some time, it’s an adjustment”
On the Monkey Incident
“Jeff Banks and his uh ... wife or his girlfriend, it’s his wife, uh ... ‘female partner’ anyway, don’t know her real name, but she goes by the name Pole Assassin, and I don’t need to know any more, my research stopped there!”
“Dani Thomas is her real name, but I like Pole Assassin better … gotta be a top 3 stripper name that I’ve heard in my whole life. Definitely better than Crystal or Candy”
“Hopefully he addressed the team … we got a monkey we gotta get off our back”
On Blaming the Victim (a kid btw)
“If you ever go to a zoo, you like don’t go into the animals area … like if you go to LSU and go into Mike the Tiger’s cage, you’re gonna get eaten … I mean what are you doing, that’s all I’m gonna say”
“Little kid, where are the parents? Are they watching the Pole Assassin? Halloween candy and a show maybe?”
“I mean maybe this was the distraction the team needed … there’s a chance they slipped the kid a $20 and said ‘look, we need this’ ”
On the Iowa State Matchup
“[Iowa State’s] quarterback [Brock Purdy] is not that good, our runningback [Bijan Robinson] is just as good [as Breece Hall], and I feel we have the best receiver [Xavier Worthy] ”
On Conferences
“The top Conference this year may be the Big 10, you have: Michigan State undefeated, Michigan, Ohio State, you have Wisconsin doing their thing, Iowa ehhhhhhhh but they had a little run … Big 10 has some dogs”
“If Texas ends up 8-4, we’re gonna get a good bowl, we’re Texas. You go get matched up with like a Penn State (for example) and get the win and it re-energizes the team for next year”
On Crashing back to Reality
“I hear what you mean, I hear what you’re saying, but for now we just need to worry about finishing the 4th quarter”
“Unfortunately, a lot of the [positive] things we’ve outlined before have not panned out”
“That’s what I’m saying, you guys are naming all these players, saying we have all these great players … I don’t know, do we?”
Another potshot at Baylor just because
“I know we have really talented guys, again we have to execute … we’re Texas, we’re gonna get the criticism, unlike Baylor who only won ONE game last year, but they don’t have the microscope on them”
Here at Wide Right & Natty Lite, we do our best to Actually Help Farmers, and since we couldn’t afford stickers on a helmet with zero other purpose, we decided that we would make an effort to support Iowa farmers in another way.
In our AHF Featured Farm Project, we will honor one family farm each week of an Iowa State home game. We are searching for farms in Iowa (or outside) that bring passion to the fields, both football and corn. Every nominated farm will have the option to purchase a custom shirt featuring their farm logo, and our AHF logo on the back (click here to buy the Clough Farms AHF shirt). 50% of all shirt sales will go towards Practical Farmers of Iowa and the Farm Crisis Center in efforts to Actually Help Farmers.
This week, I spoke with Alex Clough of Clough Farms. The Cloughs farm is just outside of Clare, Iowa, where they have about 80 cows and calves and have around 1500 acres of land. Alex is a 4th-generation farmer, but her dad, Randy, and grandpa, Marv, still help out quite a bit along with her brother, Will.
The Clough family has always been Iowa State fans, mainly because of their ties to the farming community. “The people that we’ve met before or after being at Iowa State have been great...Jack Trice is pretty awesome and Hilton is always a good time.” The Cloughs love supporting the Cyclones any chance they get.
What does Actually Helping Farmers mean to them? “Providing farmers with the most reliable resources to make their farm better, not just for their generation, but for the next,” said Alex. She also mentioned how far Iowa State has gotten in their own research to help all farmers, “Ground-breaking data and tips to help all farmers the best they can.”
Special thanks to the Clough Family for their partnership and for Actually Helping Farmers!
Have a family farm or know someone actually helping farmers? Email widerightnattylite@gmail.com to be featured!
Tailgate Preview - Texas
Horns Down and Good Riddance
By Meg A. Tron
Weather - 65 and sunny and perfect
I don’t know what we did to deserve this weather...but this is almost too good to be true. I’ve tailgated in Novembers so cold, it took a week to thaw out. But Saturday looks to be warm and sunny, not windy, and the sun will be setting as we head into Jack Trice Stadium. Hallelujah.
Food - Poolside Dip
Since the weather is going to be so balmy, I thought I’d keep things fresh and light. And red pepper plus corn equals Cyclone colors, so that’s a win in my book. This dip is advertised as “Skinny” dip, which is dumb. Life is too short to use fat-free cream cheese. This is fantastic with crackers or tortilla chips.
Drink - Moscow Mule Punch
I love a good Moscow Mule and this recipe sounds nice and refreshing on a hot and steamy day. Bonus points if you include a little umbrella.
Game - Chase down the marching band
The Iowa State Cyclone Football Varsity Marching Band, aka the Pride of Iowa State, walks around pregame looking dapper as hell and just begging for you to scream at them like a maniac until they stop and play for you. At least I think that’s what they’re doing. There is nothing more thrilling than listening to them play the fight song for your friends and family. It brings me endless joy and I can’t stop smiling for at least 10 minutes after they leave. They are incredibly talented, entertaining, and adorable. Find them. Cheer for them. Sing with them. Everyone wins.
Song - “Goodbye to You” by Scandal
Hey, Texas.
2021 Game IX: Iowa State vs Texas Football Game Preview
It’s full Horns Down this weekend.
By Levi Stevenson and Aiden_Wyatt
2021 Game IX: Iowa State (5-3, 3-2) vs. Texas (4-4, 2-3)
Date: Saturday, November 6th, 2021
Time: 6:30PM CST
Location: Jack Trice Stadium
Capacity: 61,500
Line: ISU (-7)
Television:
Radio: Cyclone Radio Network
SB Nation Website - The Smoking Musket
When we last left off...
Our Cyclones laid an egg last week in a 38-31 loss to West Virginia in Morgantown. Big plays were the name of the name, as West Virginia continually tested Iowa State’s secondary down the field, and was able to be successful on a number of those attempts.
Jarrett Doege finished 30-of-46 passing for 370 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. Two of his receivers eclipsed 100 receiving yards, and both registered a catch over 30 yards. Leddie Brown finished with 22 carries for 109 yards and two touchdowns.
The Cyclone offense was decent, though largely unspectacular. That said, Breece Hall finished with 167 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries, extending his touchdown streak to 20 games. Brock Purdy was 16-of-27 passing for 187 yards and a touchdown, and also added 64 yards and a touchdown on the ground with nine carries. The only turnover on the day came on a Breece Hall fumble late in the fourth on the goal line.
Interestingly, that play was nearly identical to David Montgomery’s fumble in the 2017 Liberty Bowl, which is to say it probably should have been a touchdown, but that’s neither here nor there.
Texas Tidbits
The Longhorns are 4-4 on the season so far in Steve Sarkisian’s first year at the helm. What’s truly bananas about this team is they’ve lost three games in a row now, all after blowing double-digit leads in the second half. Texas will certainly be looking to get that monkey off their back this weekend in Ames.
The Series
Texas leads the all-time series 14-4, but Iowa State has won the last two matchups.
Iowa State Offense
The Cyclones have been finding more of a rhythm as the season has gone on, but I think it’s fair to say they are not quite there yet. Obviously, having two 65+ yard touchdowns in the first quarter last week is a sign of good things, but at times the offense still has some issues putting a drive together.
Iowa State took a hit in the rankings in yards per play last week, ranking just inside the top 50 in each passing and rushing yards per attempt. Tarique Milton has had some huge catches after being quiet for most of the season, so having a receiver that can catch and run this week will be huge.
Although Brock Purdy has been on a tear as of late, the rush offense needs to be the point of attack this week. Last week, Breece Hall showed out and had 167 yards on 24 carries and what coulda’/shoulda’/woulda’ been two touchdowns and the offensive line really didn’t even play to their best abilities.
First Key to Victory - K.I.S.S.
Keep it simple, stupid. An argument could be made that Iowa State’s playcalling has been a bit bland at times to this point in the season, but this weekend there is no need to do anything flashy. This is a chance for the offensive line to get back on track against a defense that has not been good against the run. Last year, Breece was only able to tally 93 yards, but as I’ve alluded to, the Longhorns have struggled against the run this year. Win in the trenches straight up and be some dogs. “Be a dog. Don’t need no meowww don’t need no cats. Be a dog.”
Texas Defense
The Longhorns were able to force a few turnovers against one of the more efficient players in the country, Gerry Bohannon, but their rush defense plagued them once again. 231 yards given up on the ground is barely over their average of 213.5 yards per game, but clearly that is not a recipe for success as they sit 4-4 and have given up over 30 points in every Big 12 game thus far.
Texas’ defense has been very poor against the run this year. Giving up 5.7 yards per carry is amongst the worst in the country and is not far from being the worst in the Power 5. They also give up 7.4 yards/attempt through the air, both those stats leading to giving up over 460 yards of offense each week.
Despite all of that, Texas has a knack for forcing turnovers. They rank in the top 25 in turnover margin, forcing 13 to this point. Their defensive backs are more than capable of making plays, but their defensive line doesn’t really get pressure to the quarterback and very well could be an issue for the Longhorns if Purdy gets time on passes.
The Verdict - Iowa State
Stats say that Texas’ defense is very not good (dare I say bad even), but anything could happen in this game. I think Breece Hall could have a field day if things go well for the ISU offensive line. We’ve seen some explosive plays out of the Cyclone offense, and I think we’ll see more Saturday.
Iowa State Defense
Last week was not a good week for the Cyclone defense. First, Mike Rose missed the game with the injury(ies) we saw him visibly playing with against Oklahoma State a couple weeks ago. His absence was clearly felt, as the defense wasn’t able to stop the run as effectively, which forced the defense to commit and extra safety and leave the cornerbacks in one-on-one deep coverage.
Anthony Johnson is a solid, smart corner with a ton of experience, but is just an average or above-average athlete at his position and can be vulnerable on deep passes. Meanwhile, the second corner spot also had its fair share of difficulties. Datrone Young has a lot of snaps under his belt, but is undersized and has a tendency to get outrun by more athletic receivers. TJ Tampa has the opposite problem. He’s plenty athletic enough to do anything he’s asked, but is still young and needs time to develop and learn.
Texas has the ability to throw the ball deep, so the entire secondary, corners and safeties included, need to be on their A-game to avoid a repeat of last week. Texas most certainly has seen film of Cyclone corners getting beat deep each of the last couple games, and would be wise to attack that weak spot.
Another problem for Iowa State last week was a lack of pass rush, as the defense didn’t record a single sack, and only registered a handful of QB pressures. Will McDonald, Zack Petersen, and Enyi Uwazurike need to be better this week and create some negative plays to force Texas into long down and distance scenarios.
As of right now, Mike Rose seems to be on track to play this week. If he does play and can go full speed, Cyclone fans should expect a return to the typically-stout defense we’re used to seeing. If he can’t play, this game could make people nervous.
Second Key to Victory - Don’t Give Up Deep Shots
If you’re going to play a “bend-don’t-break” defense, that requires you to, in fact, not break. That means not giving up deep shots in the passing game. West Virginia and Oklahoma State have had success with big pass plays the last two weeks, and Texas is just as capable of doing the same thing. If you force Texas to be patient, they can get themselves in trouble.
Texas Offense
Eighty-seven-year veteran Sam Ehlinger has departed Austin, and Casey Thompson has taken the reigns of the offense. He’s completing 64% of his passes on the season for seventeen touchdowns and six interceptions. He does have some ability to scramble, but he’s nowhere near the running threat Ehlinger was.
However, Texas has their own monster running threat in the form of Bijan Robinson. The former five-star recruit is averaging 5.9 yards per carry on the season at roughly twenty carries per game with eleven rushing touchdowns. Bijan is a balanced back with plenty of strength to shrug off arm tackles, but the quickness and speed required to make a defender miss in the open field and take it to the house. Simply put, he can do a lot of damage and do it quickly.
On the outside, Texas boasts an outstanding freshmen receiver in Xavier Worthy. He’s been the best Longhorn pass-catcher on the season, averaging 4.25 catches per game at 19.8 yards per reception and seven touchdowns. He’s absolutely capable of taking the top off the defense, and will need to be a focal point for the secondary.
The next two leading receivers for Texas are Jordan Whittington and Joshua Moore. However, Jordan Whittington will miss the game due to injury, and Moore’s status is up in the air at the moment after he reportedly was in an intense verbal altercation with Steve Sarkisian this week. After those three, receptions and targets drop off quite a bit before you hit Bijan Robinson and Marcus Washington, which is then followed by guys with just a couple catches on the season.
The Verdict - Iowa State
Texas’ offense in year one of the Sarkisian era has been a successful proof of concept going forward for the program, but it hasn’t been without its hiccups. Late game playcalling has been an issue, especially of late, and if you slow down Bijan Robinson, the offense can get bogged down.
I’m assuming what we saw last week from the defense was more of a one-off hiccup than a sign of a future trend, and getting Mike Rose back would be a huge boost to the defense. Assuming Rose is back, this should be another game where some second-half tweaks can really put the clamps down on the Longhorns and give the offense a great chance to win the game for the Cyclones.
Special Teams
Despite some struggles on punt/kick returns, the special teams has looked very good on field goal attempts this season (knock on wood). As a team, Iowa State is 16 for 18 on the season, the 9th most makes in the country. Andrew Mevis has been killing it as of late, getting his touchback total up to 31 touchbacks on the year, and the switch to him on punts has made a huge difference in terms of coverage. Mevis was also named a semi-finalist for the Lou Groza Award.
Dicker the Kicker enters his 9th season as the Longhorns kicker, as he handles all three duties of punting, kickoffs, and place-kicking as well as his counterpart. Their return game hasn’t been bad, as D’Shawn Jamison averaging over 24 yards per kick return on 10 returns. Other than that, neither team really sticks out on special teams.
The Verdict - Texas’ Special Teams Coach’s Stripper Wife’s Monkey
No other words.
Winning Scale from 1 to 10
Aiden reporting, and because I’m a child I give us a 6.9 on a scale of 1-10 chance to win. Granted, Texas has had almost zero distractions this week, so who knows what could happen.
Final Analysis
Texas is never an easy win. Iowa State has won the last two meetings by a combined 5 points, one more win and that’s called a winning streak. Both teams are looking to get back on track after losses and could both get a big victory as we enter the last month of the season.
Final Score
Iowa State - 34
Texas - 17