Betting the Big 12: Week 6
Who would’ve thought the Red River game would be the worst of the week?
I talked about this on the Litecast earlier in the week, and I’ll go ahead and do it again here. So last weekend I went to Lawrence for an annual tradition that I’m sure many people have of attending a Cyclone road game every year. Now that I can check another town off of my Big 12 list, this is a great time to get a review of Lawrence down for the public record. Let’s give a letter grade on a few of the key categories for any trip and then determine if I’d recommend going back.
Accessibility: A
I’m sure this depends on exactly where you stay, but once you get into the “downtown” Lawrence area, everything you could look for is within a 30 minute walk of wherever you are. There are tons of breweries, restaurants, bars, and shops all within a short walk campus and the football stadium.
Hospitality: A-
I didn’t know what to expect coming in, but the KU fans were very friendly and you can tell how excited they are to have a good football team. There’s a bit of a common ground with Iowa State fans and Kansas fans in that we’ve both been perpetual doormats for most of our football histories. They also hate, and I mean hate K-State. The only reason this isn’t an A is because a sore spot is making fun of Bill Self and the FBI probe around the basketball program. You guys are the defending national champs. It’s ok for us to poke fun at you a little bit.
Tailgating: B
The location of the stadium makes it a little tough because there are a lot of neighborhoods near by. It’s a good set up for a “home-gate” and walking to the stadium or tailgating in someone’s yard.
Stadium: C
I think most Kansas fans can agree, Booth Stadium is due for some upgrades. It’s worn, capacity is pretty low, and it’s in the middle of a valley, which can making walking in and out a chore. But the in stadium accommodations were pretty good and reasonably priced.
Nightlife: B+
The main drag on Massachusetts Street had a ton of shops, restaurants, and bars that were within walking distance of the stadium. Kansas fans know how to have a good time. The drinks were reasonable and the food stops were good. Special shoutout to Logie’s and the Red Lyon.
Overall: B
Would I go back? Yes. This one is a no brainer for Iowa State fans. It’s close to Ames and Des Moines. Kansas City is right there for a meal. I would love to do this trip again for a basketball game. If Kansas is going to keep being good at football, I can see this being a fun back and forth every year for fans that want to hit the road.
Last week we were so close to a winning week. Like, 1 yard away from hitting the NFL pick and going 4-3. The college picks were all over the board, and now we know for sure that Oklahoma is just bad, Kansas is still the king, Iowa State can’t win a close game, and Oklahoma State is a playoff contender. This week’s slate should be a doozy, and look at what the worst game of the weekend happens to be, the Red River game. It’s not just Texas this time. Neither team is ranked, and honestly I don’t see either of them as much of a conference championship threat. Maybe that’s what you get for taking everyone else lightly and getting mad when you get beat instead of getting better?
THE GAMES
Oklahoma (3-2) vs Texas (3-2)
Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: ABC | The Line: Texas -7
Why bother wasting our energy on this crap game anyway? It’s close every year. Just take the points and watch something else.
Pick: Oklahoma +7
#17 TCU (4-0) at #19 Kansas (5-0)
Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FS1 | The Line: Kansas +6.5
Our football overlords, the Kansas Jayhawks continue to be disrespected in Vegas. 5-0 ATS this year is not good enough? Why are they still catching points at home? They’re legit good and have now proven that they can win shootouts and defensive struggles. This game will be plenty high scoring. Pair Kansas with the over and profit.
Pick: Kansas +6.5
Texas Tech (3-2) at #7 Oklahoma State (4-0)
Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: Oklahoma State -9.5
Texas Tech at home is a must bet. Texas Tech on the road is a must fade. There’s letdown potential for the fighting Gundys but I’d much rather lay the points with the experienced team than take the young team on the road.
Pick: Oklahoma State -9.5
#20 Kansas State (4-1) at Iowa State (3-2)
Kickoff: 6:30pm | TV: ESPNU | The Line: Kansas State -2
Farmageddon after dark makes for a great atmosphere and I’m sure the black uniforms will make an appearance. But with that said, the ability to win close games is a problem again. I know we beat Iowa on the road but the CyHawk game appears to have been an outlier for the rest of the season as usual. I hope I’m wrong here, but fading the Clones has to be the play until we have a reason not to.
Pick: Kansas State -2
BEST BET AROUND THE COUNTRY
Utah -4 at UCLA
Utah might have more fans at the Rose Bowl than UCLA will, and I just feel like their physicality is a much bigger advantage than UCLA’s speed. This is a classic trap spot for UCLA bettors.
NFL PICK OF THE WEEKEND
Giants +8 vs Packers
I don’t know if it even matters who the Giants are playing at QB. Saquon Barkley is having an incredible year and I don’t know if the Packers are capable of blowing anyone out (except the Bears, of course). This game is in London, and this line reflects if the game was in Green Bay.
PROP OF THE WEEK FOR OKLAHOMA FANS
Who will make the CFP first?
USC -200
Oklahoma +170
Season record: 22-23-2 (-3.3 units)
Players to Watch: Purple Kansas
The Adrian Martinez Experience
By dylanpaul
Iowa State
Offense I’ll say it, Hunter Dekkers. Our running backs are depleted, our offense is sputtering, here’s where you make a statement. There’s a lot of blame to go around in that Kansas loss, but Dekkers refusing to make good decisions under pressure could lose us a lot of games in the future.
Dekkers has seemingly decreased in productivity after a promising non-conference three-game slate. Dekkers has been underwhelming in his first two Big 12 starts, let’s hope he can help right the ship, along with some better play calling.
Defense O’Rien Vance is quietly putting together a very solid season. He leads the team in total tackles and has 3 forced fumbles on the year. He’s been the heart of the defense, which by the way, has been incredible. They crippled Kansas’ Jalon Daniels into an afterthought and held strong at every turn.
The offense needs to hold up their end of the bargain. We can’t let a stellar defense go to waste this season.
Special Teams Please be better.
Kansas State
Offense Adrian Martinez is yet to throw an interception this season. Just something to remember. Martinez has found the endzone 12 times this season, 9 rushing and 3 passing. He’s been pretty solid throughout. However, this is the same quarterback that had only 150 yards passing against Tulane in a humbling loss.
This team likes to run the ball, a lot. They won’t be able to pass their way out of a deep hole if that’s what they find themselves in.
Defense The name Kobe must have some magnetic attraction to defensive secondaries. From Cobee Bryant last week, to Kobe Savage this week. Savage is second on the team in total tackles and has done his part to help the Wildcats in the turnover margin game.
He has two interceptions on the year already, and one forced fumble. He’s a game-breaking safety that Dekkers would be wise to avoid in double coverage.
WRNL Interrogates: Bring On The Cats
Let’s see what the felines have to say
By Matthias Schwartzkopf@MatthiasWRNL
We tracked down Jon Morse of Bring On The Cats to ask him a few questions before the game tomorrow. So let’s dive right into it!
1) We are back to Farmegeddon! Why haven’t the two schools got together to make a traveling trophy? One that is actually worth a darn.
Because they hate us. By which I mean BotC and WRNL specifically. We’ve given them perfectly good ideas and they just ignore us. It’s the one thing we, as Most Hated Rivals, not only agree on but work together to see accomplished.
We should riot.
2) The wildcats have the 5th best rushing attack in the country in terms of yards per game. What has been the main catalyst for the success so far?
When you have Adrian Martinez and Deuce Vaughn in your backfield behind a great offensive line, yards are going to happen like magic.
Unless we’re playing an angry little splash of water.
3) Give us one name on offense and defense that Iowa State fans don’t know yet that they should look out for on Saturday night.
The only name y’all don’t already know on offense is DJ Giddens. He’s Deuce’s backup, and he gained at least 10 yards on damn near every single carry until the Tulane game.
He’s been somewhat absent since then, for reasons which escape my understanding, but what he provides is a big change of pace from Vaughn. Giddens is a lot taller and just kinda smashes through you rather than ducking past you.
On defense… the entire safeties unit. They’re all new, and they were our biggest concern pre-season.
They aren’t anymore. Keep an eye out especially for Kobe Savage, a transfer from Tyler JC who wasn’t a hot recruit coming out of high school but blossomed while collecting his associate’s degree.
4) How would you go about attacking Kansas State defensively?
This is my concern this weekend, although I have faith that Joe Klanderman will have actually, you know, looked at film.
With K-State’s defensive setup, linebackers (especially Khalid Duke, a natural DE who lines up as a backer) often join the pass rush in an organic fashion rather than blitzing.
That sometimes leaves the underneath routes open. I have noticed Dekkers likes to throw there. It scares me.
5) How come Klineman doesn’t keep getting tossed around in coaching rumors? What do we gotta do to deflect some attention that way to give us a break.
Look, you can relax about that now, because every school with a vacancy is going to be showering Lance Leipold with offer—
[hand to earpiece]
Oh, I’ve just been informed they’re playing TCU this week so that will all probably stop.
I guess your only option is to lose this week so Nebraska will move their gaze west.
6)It’s time. What do you think happens? Won wins and why?
You want me to predict the outcome of a Farmageddon game in Ames? HAVE YOU GONE MAD, SIR?
K-State’s favored by two. I feel like they’re going to win but the Clones are gonna cover. And since both teams have good defenses and, um, questionable offenses, I’m terrified this is gonna be a very, very B1G game. Like 14-13 garbo.
2022 Tailgate Preview IV: Kansas State
Everything is fine.
By Meg A. Tron
I know your little Cyclone hearts are hurting and spirits are low. Let’s put an end to your sadness with some good old-fashioned tailgating fun and get back on track, okay?
Weather: Absolute fall perfection.
You’ll want to throw on an extra layer before you head in to the game (where you’re certain to be treated to a beautiful Iowa sunset), but as far as tailgating goes, you just couldn’t ask for much more than the very definition of sweatshirt weather. Post-game you’ll be chilly, but something about beating Kansas State under the lights of the Jack really warms the soul.
Food: Caramel Pumpkin Blondies
I was NEVER going to share this recipe with you. But gosh darn it, I like you a whole lot, so here you go. These are the secret to making friends and getting ahead in life. Pumpkin. Caramel. Perfection. You’re welcome.
Drink: Beer
Honestly, I don’t why I ever recommend anything else. Beer is good, it’s easy to carry, and it’s the perfect accessory to a tailgating outfit. I’m partial to a good Oktoberfest this time of year (I love German beers year round), but just find one you like and enjoy it with friends. It’s really all you need.
Game: Four Square
Is this game maybe a little silly at a crowded tailgate? Yes. Am I running out of original ideas for tailgate games? Also yes. Regardless of how deep I’m digging to come up with something fun to play, four square is actually a really fun game and very simple to play. It will require you to bring chalk and a bouncy playground ball along to your tailgate, but other than that, you’re all set. I’m absolutely certain someone out in the world has created some kind of four square drinking game...and that it’s great fun.
Song: “London Bridge” by Fergie
Another bridge song?! OH, SNAP!
2022 Football Game Preview: Farmageddon
This is a must win for Iowa State
By Matthias Schwartzkopf@MatthiasWRNL
Iowa State (3-2, 0-2) at Kansas State (4-1, 2-0)
Date: October 8th
Time: 6:30 pm
Place: Jack Trice Stadium
Capacity: 61,500
Line: Kansas State (-2)
TV: ESPNU
When we last left off...
Iowa State played a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad football game against Kansas last week. If you want to pour bleach into your eyeballs and rewatch or read about it again, go ahead. We aren’t going to dwell on that anymore here.
Kansas State Tidbits
Kansas State is off to a 2-0 start in the Big 12. They are coming off a big win in Norman against Oklahoma and then taking down Texas Tech last weekend. They are currently the 20th-ranked team in the AP poll.
The Series
Iowa State leads the all-time series 52-49-4. Iowa State has won the last two games in the series.
Iowa State Offense
Send help.
This is an Iowa State offense that is spinning its tires in the mud and not making any significant progress. In the last two weeks, we have seen this group take a step backward in a ton of areas most noticeably the offensive line. A few weeks ago this group looked like they were going to be great and now they are looking like they couldn’t stop a 90-year grandmother from shoplifting. This is extremely concerning because that 90-year-old could probably get a sack on Hunter Dekkers as well. The Cyclones allowed 5 sacks on Saturday and allowed the Kansas defensive line to disrupt many other plays all afternoon. If this Iowa State offense is going to get back on track this group is going to have to take a significant step forward and fast.
Now to the running game. If Jirehl Brock is out for any significant time and Cartevious Norton remains out paired with the offensive line woes. The Cyclones may be in big trouble here. While Eli Sanders and Deon Silas have some potential we just didn’t get much from them last Saturday. This team will miss Brock more than one thinks. Now for the worst part of it all. Iowa State’s rushing attack currently sits 110th in the nation. That Can’t happen if this team is going to make a move in the standings.
As for Hunter Dekkers and the passing attack. We are currently seeing a young quarterback learn on the fly here. Some of the sacks given up by Iowa State this past weekend may have been avoided if Dekkers escaped the pocket but his presence in the pocket surely will get better as he plays. Interception potential remains a bit of an issue. Miscommunication is one of the many reasons for that. Dekkers will need to do a better job with his wide receivers and be on the same page, as it has been very noticeable and the main reason for the interception that led to a Kansas touchdown this past weekend.
First Key To The Game - Score Touchdowns
This is pretty simple. Iowa State has to be better in all areas offensively and put the ball in the end zone. Do not rely on your special teams to score your points.
Kansas State Defense
Not to pile on for Iowa State but Kansas State is going to bring one of the best pass-rushing defensive ends and linebackers in the country to Ames on Saturday. Felix Anudike-Uzomah and Khalid Duke each had 3 sacks this past weekend. Anudike-Uzomah is now up to 5.5 sacks on the season which is tied for 5th nationally. The Wildcats have gotten to the quarterback a total of 14 times this season.
Statistically, Kansas State sits in the middle of the country on the defensive side of the ball. They are not dominant in stopping the run or the pass. They just get the job done when they need to and allow their offense to do the rest of the work. One stat that does jump out is 9 interceptions on the season. With Iowa State having issues throwing the ball to the other team, Kansas State has shown they are good at taking advantage of that thus far. It is something Iowa State will have to avoid if they are going to have success on Saturday.
Another name for Iowa State fans to keep an eye on Saturday is Kobe Savage. The junior safety is second on the team in total tackles. He has two interceptions so far as well as a forced fumble. One week ago he was named Big 12 Newcomer of the week for his play against Oklahoma.
The Verdict - Kansas State
Iowa State is in a rut offensively and I am not sure how they can fix it in one week. It is going to take some drastic changes or tweaks to the game plans to get this group back on track. If Brock and Norton are still out this weekend, I see this Iowa State offense doing more of the same from the past two weeks. Hope I am wrong here.
Iowa State Defense
There is not much more you can say about this defense other than they are elite.
The Iowa State defense continues to be one of the best in the country and that is with all these young guys that we were all worried about weeks ago. The Cyclones are only giving up 15 points per game and the fourth fewest total yards in the country. This group is coming off a week where they allowed one of the best offenses up till last week to only score 14 points and pile up 213 total yards. That includes only giving up roughly 40 yards of total offense in the second half.
Second Key To The Game - Make Kansas State Go Through The Air
The formula is simple in this one for the Cyclone defense. Stop the run once again and make the Wildcats beat you through the air. It’s been the formula all season long but in games, the Wildcats have won their run game has been explosive.
Kansas State Offense
Death by a thousand runs is incoming. Kansas State is the 5th best rushing attack in the country. Averaging around 259 yards, the ground per game, and 6 yards per rush. This is going to be one of those games you put your hard hat on and go to work.
The Wildcats' run game is led by Deuce Vaughn. The junior running back has piled up over 600 yards on the ground with 3 touchdowns. This year you can add another lethal threat with him. Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez has been freed from Lincoln and has been comfortable ever since. Martinez has 439 yards rushing, and 9 rushing touchdowns. He also has added 654 passing yards and three touchdowns.
Can Kansas State throw the ball with consistency in this one? Iowa State has proven they can play defense at a high-level time and time again. Can Adrian Martinez make enough plays through the air when he will have to? We shall see.
The Verdict - Iowa State
Give the Cyclones the edge here. This will be a defensive slugfest I am afraid and this offense from Kansas State is nothing Iowa State hasn’t seen before. Will Vaughn and Martinez have their moments on the ground? Probably but how they limit those will be the key tomorrow. I think the Iowa State defense will do enough to keep this team in the game per usual.
Special Teams
What is there left to say for Iowa State and its special teams? Iowa State needs to perform an exorcism on its special teams unit. I am afraid that is the only thing that can fix them right now. Unless the second coming of Jesus happens and he can play all areas of special teams for Iowa State.
The Verdict - Kansas State
Kansas State here by a mile. Just don’t give up a special teams score and limit the mistakes as much as possible here.
Winning Scale from 1 to 10
This one is about as scary as going into a McDonalds at 1 am, you never really know what is going to happen and odds are it’s not going to be good.
Pray for help.
Final Analysis
Iowa State’s offensive and special team woes are the talk of the week and rightfully so. Unfortunately, I think it may be too big of an issue to fix in one week and Iowa State has a ton of work to do in these areas. While I do think this one is going to be close ultimately I see Kansas State pulling this one out unless Iowa State has some sort of offensive revelation during the game.
Final Score
Kansas State - 17
Iowa State - 14