2022 WRNL Digital Game Program IV: Iowa State vs. Baylor
Conference season kicks off with a critical matchup for the Cyclones.
Betting the Big 12: Week 4
Down but not out at this point!
Friends, I cannot deny it. I’m down bad. After a great start to the season, the last 2 weeks have been an absolute disaster. I don’t get it. I felt like I was in love with the board, but it turns out the board didn’t even like me as a friend. Last week, I went 1-9, which almost doesn’t feel possible. But any gambler knows that it’s just as impressive to go 1-9 as it is to go 9-1. The sportsbook account doesn’t agree. As they say, there’s only one way to go from here. Big 12 play is going to be an absolute roller coaster, so this is not an easy week to try and get back on track. If I’m being honest, I don’t love these games. But after how poorly last week went, maybe that’s a sign that things are about to turn around. Don’t abandon me yet people. The comeback starts now! Let’s do it!
THE GAMES
West Virginia (1-2) at Virginia Tech (2-1)
Kickoff: Thurs 6:30pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: West Virginia -1.5
Who the heck knows? West Virginia won this game at home last year. I don’t think Virginia Tech is good. I’m scared of the environment, but this might truly be Neal Brown’s last stand. At least they played well on the road to start the year in Pittsburgh.
Pick: West Virginia -1.5
#17 Baylor (2-1) at Iowa State (3-0)
Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: ESPN2 | The Line: Iowa State -2.5
Now here is a classic spot where the unranked team is favored at home against a ranked team. This is a start to the season 10 years in the making. Baylor can’t throw. The home team always wins in this series. Iowa State owes themselves this one after blowing the game in Waco last fall.
Pick: Iowa State -2.5
TCU (2-0) at SMU (2-1)
Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: ESPNU | The Line: TCU -2.5
What a fun game this shapes up to be. I can’t decide who has more revenge on the mind. Is it TCU for losing to SMU at home last year? Or is it SMU for TCU stealing their head coach? I don’t love this one either way, but I’ll assume the week off was good for the Frogs and Sonny Dykes will get them home a winner.
Pick: TCU -2.5
Duke (3-0) at Kansas (3-0)
Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FS1 | The Line: Kansas -7.5
All hail our Jayhawk overlords. Duke is a deceptive 3-0. Kansas might score 60 points themselves.
Pick: Kansas -7.5
#22 Texas (2-1) at Texas Tech (2-1)
Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Texas -7
So maybe I overrated Texas Tech a little bit. No matter. Texas scored 70 on these guys last year and set in motion the firing of their old coach. The Lubbock crowd will play a huge role in this game as well. You know those fans have been waiting to boo the crap out of Texas since the SEC move was announced.
Pick: Texas Tech +7
Kansas State (2-1) at #6 Oklahoma (3-0)
Kickoff: 7:00pm | TV: Fox | The Line: Oklahoma -13
Kansas State lost at home to Tulane and Oklahoma blew the doors off Nebraska on the road. Why is this spread under 2 touchdowns? This line stinks out loud. Kansas State has a history of playing well in Norman, so let’s take them to keep it closer than the experts think.
Pick: Kansas State +13
BEST BET AROUND THE COUNTRY
South Carolina -22 vs Charlotte
Charlotte stinks out loud. Charlotte’s defense cannot stop anyone. South Carolina got smushed by Georgia last week and has some demons to exercise. Cocky wins in a rout.
NFL PICK OF THE WEEKEND
49ers -1.5 at Broncos
Russ Wilson is washed, Nate Hackett is a bonehead, and the 49ers are ready to roll with Jimmy G back at QB. This might be such a blowout that Brock Purdy will get his first NFL action.
PROP OF THE WEEK FOR KANSAS STATE FANS
Leading Big 12 rusher this weekend?
Deuce Vaughn +150
Bijan Robinson +200
Eric Gray +300
Jirehl Brock +550
The Field +250
Season record: 13-18-1 (-6.8 units)
2022 Tailgate Preview III: Baylor
Baylor? I hardly know her.
By Meg A. Tron
Big 12 play kicks off Saturday morning with the third home game of the season. By now you’ve adjusted to your new tailgating spot, made some new friends, and I know you’re ready to start off conference play with a bang. While you may not be excited about the time slot, I know you’re excited about our undefeated Cyclones, so let’s get to it!
Weather - Simply perfect
Oooooo, baby. It’s going to be a gorgeous day. With an 11:00 a.m. kickoff, you’ll likely be starting your day bright and early, so definitely plan layers for a chilly fall morning. But around the time you’re heading in to JTS, the sun will be shining and the day will be warming up to a comfortable temperature. The tailgating weather gods will be smiling on us post game with sunshine, a light wind, and not a rain cloud in sight.
Food - Breakfast Sliders
In the spirit of leaning into an 11:00 a.m. game, whip up these little breakfast sliders and delight all your friends and family. Breakfast sandwiches always sounds delicious, so these are likely a win for any game, any time. Plus, they’re easy to change according to your tastes. Not a ham person? Breakfast sausage would be a great substitution. Change up the cheese, toss some diced peppers into those eggs. The opportunities are endless and I’m certain they’ll be all gobbled up by game time.
Drink - Bloody Mary
So...I was searching for a great Bloody Mary recipe (because while I love them, I don’t make them) and came across this photo from...the Oriental Trading website? And there’s also a very detailed recipe with photos to guide you along. That is quite possibly the last place I would have looked for a tailgating recipe, but it seems like a legitimate option. Honestly, if you served me a Bloody Mary with a soft pretzel, I’d likely propose marriage.
Game - 500
At recess the other day, a group of kids spontaneously started playing this game I’d completely forgotten existed. Do you remember this one? Here are the very easy rules. It’s such a fun variation on simply playing catch and can include a lot more people. It’s kind of competitive but also a bit of silly fun and I can see this being a blast with a group of adults (and if you’re tailgating with kids, they will absolutely LOVE it). You’ll need to find some open space to play, but all you need is a football and you’re all set. Be ready for some serious throwback to elementary school fun.
Song - Water Under the Bridge
“Is she ever going to stop with the bridge song shtick?”
No.
Players to Watch: Baylor
Conference Play Begins
Iowa State
Offense: DeShawn Hanika. DeShawn hasn’t had the most volume with his games this year, but he’s been very impactful with what he’s been able to do. He only has 4 receptions on the year, but half of them have gone for touchdowns. Dekkers has been looking Hanika’s way in the red zone, and for a tight end spot that lost big red zone targets in Charlie Kolar and Chase Allen, having access to another threat at the position this year has been great for Hunter Dekkers.
“Tight End U” is alive and well with DeShawn leading the way this year, and I’d look for that to continue as conference play begins.
Defense: O’Rien Vance. The whole linebacker group will be put to the test this weekend against Baylor’s powerful and versatile running game. Of the guys in that group, O’Rien Vance has been the leading tackler with 14 on the season. That number is a little low given the number of snaps given to backups with the blowouts over SEMO and Ohio, but I’d not expect that to be the case this weekend. The Cyclone defense will face its first true test of the season, and it starts with big number 34 right in the middle of it.
Baylor
Offense: Richard Reese. Baylor has had a large amount of success running the ball this year, and it starts with freshman running back Richard Reese. Reese is leading the way in attempts (34), yards (237), yards per carry (7.0), and touchdowns (5) for the Bears in the early going of the season. With no truly established top wide receiver for Blake Shapen to target on the outside, look for Reese and the running game to be established early and often.
Defense: Siaki Ika. Siaki started his collegiate career at LSU before transferring after 2 years there to Baylor. Last year was his first year with the Bears’ defense and he rattled off 24 total tackles stuffing the middle of the field and adding on an addition four sacks of opposing QBs.
Ika will look to wreak havoc on the Cyclones experienced yet shaky offensive line and will look to pressure Hunter Dekkers who has yet to be pressured consistently through 3 games.
2022 Game Preview IX: Baylor
Big 12 play starts off with a bang
By Matthias Schwartzkopf@MatthiasWRNL
Iowa State (3-0, 0-0) at Baylor (2-1, 0-0)
Date: September 24th
Time: 11 A.M
Place: Jack Trice Stadium
Capacity: 61,500
Line: Iowa State (-2.5)
TV: ESPN2
When we last left off...
Iowa State took care of business at home against the Ohio Bobcats, winning by a final score 43-10.
The Cyclones took the lead early and never relinquished it, starting the scoring on an 11-play 69 (nice) yard drive, ending with a Hunter Dekkers touchdown run. After trading punts, Hunter Dekkers took over to get back into the end zone, as tight end, DeShawn Hanika caught his second TD pass of the season to make it 14-0.
Iowa State would force two consecutive turnovers and convert both into 10 points to 24-0. Deon Silas would key the scoring drive, breaking off a 24-yard run on the way to the end zone. A Hunter Dekkers fumbled exchange would give Ohio the ball back, and Ohio settled for a field goal.
A touchdown drive before the half would end hope for Ohio, as a 10-play, 75-yard drive capped by a 15-yard touchdown catch by Shawn Shaw would give Iowa State a 30-3 lead after an extra blocked point.
When the dust settled, Iowa State wound up dominating the game. Hunter Dekkers tossed 3 touchdowns, going 28/36 for 263 yards. Jirehl Brock and Deon Silas got the most carries, with each going for 76 and 58 yards, respectively.
Xavier Hutchinson continued his stellar season, bringing in 9 grabs for 93 yards and a touchdown. Shawn Shaw Jr and DeShawn Hanika rounded out the touchdown club. but 10 different Cyclones recorded receptions.
Baylor Tidbits
Baylor is 2-1 on the young season with their lone loss coming two weeks ago in the missed field goal battle with BYU. This past weekend Baylor took down Texas State 42-7 in Waco.
The Series
Baylor leads the all-time series 11-9. Baylor won the game last season 31-29. Iowa State scored a touchdown late and came up short on the two-point conversion attempt to send it to overtime.
Iowa State Offense
Xavier Hutchinson is a man on a mission this season. The Cyclone star came into the season needing 95 receptions to overtake Allen Lazard as Iowa State’s all-time reception leader. After three games, Hutchinson has 28 receptions, 319 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns. The senior needs to average 7.4 receptions per game to pass Lazard for the top spot. Something to keep an eye on the rest of the way.
Iowa State’s offense this season is averaging 26.5 points per game. The average is almost always certain to take a dip when you play Iowa in the second game of the season. One can expect the Cyclone numbers to take a bit of a climb as the season goes on. It’s time to let Hunter Dekkers unleash the cannon.
First Key To Victory - Let It Fly
Iowa State may be getting better in the run game and that may be more of Matt Campbell’s style but sometimes things change. The Cyclones have might have one of the strongest arms in college football. Pair that with some very talented skilled players. There is no reason this Iowa State team shouldn’t just air it out more. I think this week may dictate that.
Baylor comes in with one of the strongest run defenses in the country but stopping the pass seems to be more of a problem. The Baylor defense sits just about average nationally when it comes to stopping the pass. Last season Iowa State threw for 263 yards and 8 yards per completion. The Cyclones did have some success on the ground as well rushing for 216 yards on the afternoon.
Baylor Defense
Baylor comes to Ames with a pretty good defense. The Bears are allowing just over two touchdowns per game and hardly letting their opponents reach the 300-yard mark. What is really driving the numbers is the already mentioned rushing defense for the Bears. Baylor is only allowing 2.5 yards per rush and 82.5 yards on the ground per game. Both those stats sit top 15 nationally so far this season.
To go along with that is their pass defense. While it may come across as average it may be anything but that. The numbers may have trended that way due to the sheer volume of pass attempts this defense has been seeing due to them shutting down the run. Baylor is giving up 235 yards through the air per game and 6.2 yards per pass. Which is about right for where the Iowa State offense sits currently. If Iowa State is going to attack this defense it is going to have to be through the air.
A few names to keep an eye on defensively for Baylor are Dillon Doyle and Al Walcott. Iowa State fans may recognize Dillon Doyle. He is the son of former Iowa Strength Coach Chris Doyle. The Iowa City native is the starting middle linebacker for Baylor. Al Walcott is in the STAR position for Baylor. He is taking over for Jalen Pitre who was an absolute stud and is now playing for the Houston Texans.
The Verdict - Even
If you had to put a gun to my head and pick here, I would lean Iowa State but right now its close enough that this is a toss-up. I think Iowa State will be able to move the ball through the air but it may be tough sledding on the ground. If Iowa State can play a clean game and not be behind the chains I think they can make some noise. We shall see how this turns out.
Iowa State Defense
Statistically, the Iowa State defense is one of the best in the country. The Cyclone defenders are allowing only 8.5 points per game. Not only have teams not scored on them yet, but they’re also having a hard time moving the ball. Iowa State is giving up 191 yards per game, 41 yards on the ground, and 150 yards per game through the air. All of which are top 15 marks in the country. While some of the names are new and young, the Iowa State defense has continued down the same path.
Second Key To Victory - Stop The Run
The Baylor offense is a tough out on the ground. It is one of the most potent rushing attacks in the country. The goal for Iowa State is to keep Baylor around 4 yards per carry. If that number gets near 5 yards a pop it may be a long day for Iowa State defensively. So far so good against the run this season but I think this may be their biggest test yet.
Baylor Offense
This Baylor offense is putting up 31 points per game but they are a run-first team. The wide zone scheme that offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes deploys is off and running this season. Baylor is one of the better-run teams in the country. Averaging 5 yards per rush, 223 yards per game. It is a stout attack that just keeps coming at you.
Through the air, Baylor hasn’t been as hot. Quarterback Blake Shapen is 91st in the country in total passing yards with 535 yards. They deploy that 106th-ranked passing attack in the country that averages 6.2 yards per pass. This is not your mother's type of Baylor team that we have seen in the past.
Taye McWilliams and Craig Williams were the names to being the season in the backfield but after their win over Texas State, Richard Reese has emerged as a factor. The true freshman carried the Baylor offense on 19 carries and 156 yards. A three-headed monster in the Baylor backfield is going to be a tough assignment for any defense to stop.
The Verdict - Iowa State
The Iowa State defensive line has been playing lights out. Eating up double teams and just destroying the point of attack for the opposing rushing attack. I think that will bode well this week. Baylor will get theirs but they won’t be popping off for 5 yards per carry. I think this front 6 for Iowa State is too talented to let that happen. Give me Iowa State a slight edge here.
Special Teams
A major special teams mishap pretty much cost the game for Iowa State last season. The Cyclones started building momentum in the third quarter following the slow start and then they let Trestan Ebner return a kickoff 98 yards for a touchdown that put Iowa State down 28-16 at the time. Iowa State has already had its fair share of mishaps on the special teams side of the ball. Let’s recap, two blocked punts and one blocked extra point on the season so far.
On the other side of things, Baylor already has a punt return for a touchdown on the season. In the first game, Gavin Holmes returned one to the house 72 yards. Iowa State will have to be ready for anything possible in the return game. Baylor is always a threat on special teams.
Third Key To Victory - Don’t Mess It up
This is simple. Avoid the big mistake and avoid the big return. If Iowa State does that, they are in this game.
The Verdict - Baylor
I am just going to side with history in this one. Baylor has usually been better on special teams when these two teams meet. As of right now, the errors are still piling up for this Iowa State team. Until they can string together some flawless outings on special teams I will not be picking them in this phase.
Winning Scale from 1 to 10
This is kind of like going to get gas at Casey’s to get gas. Usually, the pumps are slow and you wish it was over with already. On the other hand, you can go to Kwik Star and get out of there in no time. You got two choices here and a 50% chance of making the right choice. I think Iowa State turns to the right store and comes out strong in this one.
Final Analysis
These games have been close. There has been drama. There have been tent mishaps. This series as of late has had it all. I expect this one to be no different in Ames on Saturday. This Iowa State team will be tested. Collectively, Baylor’s offensive and defensive lines are the best the Cyclones have seen all year long. It will push this Iowa State team to be great up front and make more strides on the offensive line to have a successful afternoon. It will be close but this team is playing well right now and with the underdog mentality will pull it through at the end of the day and behind the arm of Hunter Dekkers.
Final Score
Iowa State - 24
Baylor - 21
Lets Go Pod-y: Baylor Bears
By cIonesjer
Podcast: The Our Daily Bears Podcast
Welcome to another year of “Let’s Go Pod-y” where I listen to podcasts from our upcoming opponent and give you the breakdown. It’s the first week back so I’m giving you TWO Baylor pods, the first fairly sane, the second ... something special. Enjoy.
Podcast: Our Daily Bears Podcast
Pod Length: 1 hour 30 mins, although the Iowa State talk doesn’t start until the 49 min mark.
General
“Really excited for this game, because we’re gonna know at the end of it where our team [Baylor] is”
On Ames
“That’s just a tough place for us to play man”
“It’ll be a pretty hostile environment, ranked team coming in, their fans will by pretty hyped for that”
“I prefer [kickoff] early in the day, given their crowd can be pretty rowdy, pretty raucous, an 11am game, it can be a challenge for them to get up for that in the morning”
On ISU Offense
“Iowa State had lost a ton of their firepower, but they have reloaded nicely on offense it would seem”
On Hunter Dekkers
“Somewhat of an upgrade over Brock Purdy? Maybe? At least through 3 games?”
“I don’t think Dekkers is much of a running threat”
On ISU running game
“One thing Iowa State has had, is they’ve had ‘alphas’ at runningback, they went from David Montgomery to Breece Hall. Jirihl Brock is solid, but he’s not what you’re gonna call an ‘alpha’.”
“Brock has 50 carries, 280 yards on the season … he’s been the guy since Game 1, he’s definitely not a David Montgomery or Breece Hall back there”
[Note: Brock is currently 4th in the Big 12 in rushing yards and averaging 5.6 ypc]
On X
“He’s the class of this ISU offense, he’s an NFL wide receiver, probably the best in the Big 12. For sure top 5”
“He’s my chief concern from a defensive side, our defense is effective at stopping the run … we’re gonna need to see our secondary step up in a big way”
On Baylor Defense
“We’ve gotta find a way to get some pressure, that’s the piece we’re missing so far”
“We haven’t ran anything ‘exotic’ so far … haven’t been getting pressure on the quarterbacks”
On ISU Defense
“Interesting lineup, 3-3-3 defense, but not a stack apparently. ‘breaks a lot of the stack rules’, what are the stack rules? Do you know what the stack rules are?”
“Used to be really unique, not as unique anymore”
“Because of their personnel they can shift from a 3 down lineman look to a 4 without changing personnel, which can be problematic for offenses trying to find themselves like Baylor’s is early in the season”
“This is a defense that will give you short yardage both in the run game and the passing game … they will let you make your own mistakes”
On Matt Campbell
“Campbell’s got a system going now, it’s a lot of new names, but it’s the same ethos, the same identity”
Predictions
“I can see this being a bit of a rock fight … it’s a race to 24-25 points. No one is going to run away and hide offensively in this game”
“I think they’ll be a tough match up for us on the road, I think Iowa State wins unfortunately”
“I think we’ll see some new wrinkles … this will be an absolute slugfest … QB and WRs will be unfazed by the hostile environment and Baylor wins”
“Close game, but Baylor wins”
BONUS POD BONUS POD BONUS POD BONUS POD BONUS POD BONUS POD
BONUS POD: Between Two Bears
Pod Length: 42 mins - only a little Iowa State chatter starting around the 33 min mark, but it’s spicy to say the least.
On Iowa State
“They got a lot of thick ass white dudes with long hair, they don’t scare me”
On Iowa State Defense
“Has their defense ever really held down a GOOD offense?”
“The 3-3-5 is a solved problem, people have solved it ... they were the 1st team to run [it] & they did it well ... but we’re a power run league now & unless you have all-conference dudes at nosetackle that can wash offensive line, you’re gonna have teams go for 4 or 5 yards a carry, that’s where they’re at”
On MFK with Lance Liepold, Matt Campbell & Matt Rhule
“I’m gonna kill Matt Campbell, because he’s a fraud”
Game Predictions
“This game is annoying ... but we’re better at football than them, so I think we’ll win be a touchdown”
“And if we lose, I don’t think we lost because Iowa State was better than us, it’ll be because some weird shit happens, some sicko shit, some bullshit referee call”
Just because they’re dickheads apparently
“The tents are my favorite memory”
WRNL Interrogates: Our Daily Bears
Let’s find out some stuff on Baylor
By Matthias Schwartzkopf@MatthiasWRNL
Iowa State and Baylor square off this Saturday to kick off the Big 12 slate for both teams. So we went straight to Our Daily Bears to find out a bit more. So let’s get started.
1) The run game for Baylor has been very impressive and with three really good backs it’s going to be a tough thing for Iowa State to stop. What makes Jeff Grimes’ wide zone so successful for Baylor?
In the two years that Grimes has been in Waco running his scheme, Baylor has benefitted from an experienced, talented OL and having several good backs at the same time, led by Abram Smith (Baylor’s single-season leading rusher) last season. It also helped that Gerry Bohanon and Blake Shapen have both been able to throw well on the run and avoid turnovers, but it’s primarily the OL. It hasn’t hurt the Big 12 has traditionally been a more inside zone-oriented conference, so there is the newness aspect to it.
2) Blake Shapen hasn’t had a real great year passing the ball partly because he hasn’t really needed to do it. Is it because the run is so successful or is there something else out there that is bugging this Baylor passing attack?
We lost a lot of production at WR and are trying to break in three primary younger guys—Hal Presley, Seth Jones, and Monaray Baldwin—none of whom have carried the load as a #1 receiver before. Baldwin missing the BYU game hurt quite a bit since he’s the primary downfield threat, and Shapen hasn’t really gotten on track with anyone yet except Ben Sims, who is the leading returning receiver for the team. Considering an intended emphasis on the vertical passing game is the reason they chose Shapen over Bohanon in the offseason, it seems likely that the failure to throw the ball consistently so far is not because they just haven’t wanted to yet.
3) Give is a name on the offensive and defensive side of the ball that Iowa State fans may not know yet but will by the end of the game.
Defensively, TJ Franklin. With Cole Maxwell out, Franklin will get a lot of playing time and is a relatively unheralded part of the defense despite being a senior. If not Franklin then Al Walcott, who has slid into the Pitre role from last season. Offensively, maybe Seth Jones since we need receivers to step up and make plays, and he’s shown excellent hands. That’s assuming Richard Reese, the true freshman leading the team in rushing right now, is already known. If not, then it’s Reese.
4)What would you view as the biggest threat on Iowa State right now?
Has to be Xavier Hutchinson, right? Texas State had one guy—Ashtyn Hawkins—that made our secondary look silly at times and was their only weapon. They still managed to get him the ball 13 times despite us knowing that’s what they were going to do. Baylor will try to make Iowa State one-dimensional on offense by taking away the running game. Iowa State, in turn, will try to spread Baylor out. Hutchinson will be the primary beneficiary, and he scares me.
5)What does this Baylor team need to do to win this game?
Avoid obvious passing situations on offense. Against BYU, procedure penalties killed our offense by getting us behind schedule into situations where we needed to pass but, for whatever reason, did not feel comfortable doing it. Part of that was probably losing Baldwin in the second quarter. Another part was BYU’s defense, which is good (although Oregon made them seem less good). Regardless, we lost several drives in that game to penalties. Turnovers would do the same thing, as would inability to execute on first and second down leading to long third downs, which the offense has not shown the ability to pick up this season on the ground.
6) Prediction time. Who wins and why?
My official prediction will go up on Friday in our traditional thread, but I understand why Iowa State is favored to win right now and expect it to be a relatively low scoring affair where Baylor falls short. I have too many questions about the way we played on the road @BYU that need to be answered before I can predict a win. That may change by Friday, though!